This is a blockbuster series, and what a way to start it in Durban. If you look at the contest purely from the numbers, South Africa would appear to be the strong favourites. There is no question about that. The numbers certainly stack up in their favour.
Australia struggled in the first one-day international at Kingsmead, while South Africa have a very strong bowling line-up. There is still some uncertainty over whether Kagiso Rabada will be fit, but assuming he is available, South Africa would have a very strong pace trio. With Anrich Nortje and Marco Jansen alongside him, South Africa appear to have most of their bases covered with the ball.
Then there is spin, which could prove pivotal as the series progresses, perhaps even more so in Durban. Simon Harmer and Keshav Maharaj are also expected to have a strong say in how things develop for Australia. With the venues all being seaside venues, the conditions could also play an important role in the contest.
Based on that, and on my experience of playing in South Africa, the ball is likely to do quite a bit for the seamers. It will not necessarily be straightforward for the batters. That could mean the focus for both sides will be on how many runs they can manage to score.
There are two strong bowling line-ups in this contest, so the key question becomes how many runs each team can get. It is not simply about what happens from numbers one to six or seven in the batting order. The lower order could also have a major influence. Numbers eight, nine, ten and eleven might have a big and strong influence on how the games, and ultimately the series, are played out.
If the numbers are the basis for assessing the two teams, there is one area that does not necessarily work in South Africa’s favour. They have not played a lot of Test match cricket recently, whereas Australia have. That is the one thing that stands out against Proteas when looking purely at the numbers. Their lack of recent Test match cricket could have some bearing on the contest.
When it comes to the batting line-ups, I feel South Africa have the stronger unit overall. However, the two best players in the contest, in my view, play for Australia: Travis Head and Steve Smith. If those two are taken out of the equation, South Africa have the stronger batting line-up.
Talking about Head, him batting at the top of the order is not a decision I have agreed with. In fact, I think he is better suited to batting at No. 5, but Australia see it differently.
This could be a defining series for Head in his role as an opener. It will be interesting to see how he fares at the top of the order and whether he can make the position his own.
Then comes a question of which side has the stronger bowling attack. It is a difficult call because both sides have very strong bowling resources. The contest between the two bowling line-ups could be one of the defining aspects of the series.
Despite all of that, my gut feeling throughout is that I quite fancy Australia. I think they will feel a little more relaxed going into the series. They will understand that their batting unit is in a bit of transition and is still trying to find its way.
There is a huge amount of pressure on Marnus Labuschagne, for sure. Steve Smith needs to fire, and so does Travis Head. At the same time, I quite like the fact that Matt Renshaw is in the side. I think he will feel that, even though this is another coming for him, he is going to get a run in the team. He has to. That should give him a kind of relaxed feeling going into the series.
I think Australia’s batting could fare a little better in the series than perhaps is being predicted. That is the key for Australia. Their bowling line-up will be very strong. Australia’s bowling attack will be dominant. The question is whether Australia can score enough runs.
If they play on surfaces that do a little bit, I would not be surprised if Australia surprised a few people with the way they bat. That, for me, is where the contest will be decided.
There are also some significant absences for Australia. Josh Inglis being out is a big loss. If he had been fit, I would have played him, but he is not available. Cameron Green being out is also a big loss for Australia.
Green had been in good form in the recent series against Bangladesh, and his absence is therefore significant. So, for all the positives that can be identified about Australia, losing Green is certainly a blow.
South Africa, meanwhile, have plenty going for them. Their bowling line-up is strong, particularly if Rabada is fit, while their batting unit, when considered as a whole, looks strong as well. The conditions and venues could also suit their bowlers, particularly with the possibility of the ball doing quite a bit for the seamers.
The lack of recent Test match cricket is the one factor that perhaps works against South Africa when the two teams are compared purely on numbers. Australia have played more Test cricket recently, and that is something that could count for them.
Ultimately, though, South Africa are the favourites. The numbers point towards them, their bowling line-up is very strong, and their batting unit also looks good when considered beyond the two standout Australian players, Travis Head and Steve Smith.
But Australia should not be dismissed. There is a feeling that they could find something that perhaps others are not predicting. Their batting is the key, and if they can approach the series with a more relaxed mindset and cope with the conditions, they could be competitive.
The pressure on Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith and Travis Head will be considerable, while Renshaw’s presence could provide a different dynamic if he feels assured that he will get a proper run in the side. Australia’s bowling, meanwhile, should remain a major strength.
So, overall, South Africa are the favourites, but Australia could make the contest much closer than expected.
It promises to be a great series to watch. South Africa may have the numbers and the overall balance in their favour, but Australia could still find a way to surprise a few people with their batting.
