Every ICC World Cup brings with it the same inevitable question: who makes the semi-finals? Form, conditions, squad balance, and tournament pedigree all matter — but so does timing, momentum, and instinct. As the tournament approaches, four teams stand out as the most likely contenders for the last four.
At the top of that list are the co-hosts, India. Ranked No.1 in T20 internationals, India arrive at this World Cup in formidable form. They have won 11 consecutive bilateral series, claimed both the T20 World Cup and the Asia Cup in the recent cycle, and look increasingly comfortable across conditions. More importantly, this side appears settled and confident, with a clear understanding of roles. India are also chasing history: no team has successfully defended a T20 World Cup title, and no host nation has lifted the trophy. Based on form, depth, and familiarity with conditions, it is difficult to envisage a scenario in which India fail to reach the semi-finals.
The second near-certainty is Australia. Recent results may suggest vulnerability — they are without Pat Cummins and were beaten by Pakistan — but tournament history demands caution before writing Australia off. Under Mitchell Marsh since the 2024 T20 World Cup, Australia have shown resilience, winning consistently despite injuries and rotation. Crucially, they have selected a spin-heavy squad tailored for Sri Lankan conditions, where they will play all their group matches. With Adam Zampa as a proven match-winner in Asian conditions, Australia remain a serious threat, as they invariably are at ICC events.
What this means is that there’s no South Africa in the final four, since only two from India, Australia and South Africa can progress. South Africa came agonisingly close to winning the previous T20 World Cup, only to suffer a dramatic batting collapse when victory was within reach. They were heavily beaten by India in a recent T20 series and do not enter the World Cup with a full-strength squad, which reduces their chances of making it to the semi-finals.
The most difficult call concerns the final semi-final berth. The choice came down to two from the joint hosts, Sri Lanka, England, and New Zealand. Sri Lanka enjoy a significant home advantage, boast an experienced and versatile spin attack, and have batting depth capable of posting competitive totals. Inconsistency with shot selection and reliance on momentum remain concerns, as witnessed during their series loss to England this week, but I am backing the Lankans go make it.
New Zealand, meanwhile, arrive after a bruising 4–1 defeat to India, with clear weaknesses exposed. Yet history suggests this is a team that consistently elevates its performance at ICC tournaments. On better surfaces than those used in the recent India series, the Black Caps could rediscover their balance and once again punch above their weight. Despite England’s strong batting and canny spinners, instinctively, New Zealand feel the safer semi-final bet. England, despite recent overseas success, appear unsettled to me.
Notably absent from this predicted top four are West Indies, who have plenty of talent but are too dependent on a few regular performers, and Pakistan, whose reputation for unpredictability no longer compensates for structural and batting limitations.
As ever, World Cups have a habit of defying logic. But based on current evidence, these four teams look best equipped to handle the pressures and demands of the tournament’s sharp end.
