For much of the 2026 season, Shohei Ohtani appeared positioned to add another National League MVP award to his extraordinary résumé.

Pete Crow-Armstrong has changed that conversation.

The Chicago Cubs center fielder has surged ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers superstar as the calendar turns to September, creating one of baseball’s most fascinating MVP debates. Crow-Armstrong’s combination of power, speed and elite defense has given him an increasingly strong argument against Ohtani’s unique two-way production.

The race shifted significantly during the final weekend of August.

Crow-Armstrong hit five home runs in two games against the Cincinnati Reds, including three on Saturday and two more Sunday. His explosive weekend strengthened an MVP case that had already moved him ahead of Ohtani in MLB.com’s latest expert poll.

The betting market reacted dramatically. Crow-Armstrong moved from approximately -150 to as short as -1600 to win NL MVP, while Ohtani moved from +120 to approximately +900 at one sportsbook following the weekend. Odds can vary between sportsbooks, but the movement illustrates how dramatically perceptions of the race have changed.

Crow-Armstrong’s Complete Game Separates His MVP Case

The strongest argument for Crow-Armstrong extends well beyond his offensive production.

He has developed into one of baseball’s most valuable defensive players at one of its most demanding positions. His range and athleticism in center field give Chicago value on plays that never appear in traditional offensive statistics.

That difference is reflected in WAR.

Entering play last Tuesday, Crow-Armstrong led MLB with 7.9 Baseball-Reference WAR and 8.6 FanGraphs WAR. Ohtani ranked second to him with 6.9 bWAR and 7.0 fWAR.

Crow-Armstrong also provides another dimension with his legs. His combination of home-run power and stolen-base production has turned him into one of baseball’s most complete players rather than simply one of its best hitters.

That matters when comparing him with Ohtani.

Ohtani remains the superior offensive force, but Crow-Armstrong contributes every day in center field and creates additional value on the bases. His MVP argument is built around affecting games in virtually every conventional way available to a position player.

Ohtani’s Pitching Could Still Change the Race

Ohtani’s case remains fundamentally different from Crow-Armstrong’s.

Through last week, the Dodgers star was hitting .287/.388/.546 with a 158 OPS+. On the mound, he had produced a 1.79 ERA across 85 2/3 innings before knee and biceps problems interrupted his season.

Ohtani has not pitched since July 3, significantly reducing the two-way advantage that normally makes his MVP candidacy so difficult to challenge. The Dodgers have continued progressing him toward a potential return to the mound in September.

That return could become one of the biggest variables during the final month.

If Ohtani pitches effectively while continuing to produce at an elite level offensively, voters would again have to account for his ability to provide legitimate value as both a hitter and starting pitcher.

Crow-Armstrong has an answer of his own.

While he cannot match Ohtani’s pitching value, Ohtani cannot match what Crow-Armstrong provides defensively in center field. The Cubs star also has the advantage in overall WAR, giving voters a statistical measurement of just how significant his defense, baserunning and offense have been collectively.

September Could Decide the NL MVP

The race has reached a position that seemed unlikely earlier in the season.

Ohtani is attempting to win his fourth consecutive MVP award and fifth overall, but Crow-Armstrong has gone from challenger to front-runner.

MLB.com’s Aug. 25 MVP poll placed Crow-Armstrong first in the National League for the first time this season. His five-home-run weekend has only strengthened his position since that vote.

Their cases could hardly be more different.

Ohtani offers elite hitting combined with high-level starting pitching when healthy. Crow-Armstrong offers power, speed, baserunning and elite defense at a premium position.

With one month remaining in the regular season, Crow-Armstrong has created meaningful separation. Ohtani still has September to close it, particularly if he can return to the Dodgers’ rotation and restore the two-way component that has defined his historic value.