The question on every Indian cricket fans lips after Sunday’s loss to South Africa – can India qualify for the semi-finals of the T20 World Cup?

India suffered their first loss in 13 T20 World Cup games after a record 76-run drubbing in their opening fixture of the Super Eights stage.

The result puts South Africa top of the group with a massive boost to their net run rate (NRR) of 3.800, while India are in the red with a NRR off -3.800. Suryakumar Yadav’s team is now under immense pressure, because it’s not just the loss, but rather the margin of defeat that has left their semi-final chances hanging by a thread. 

Now, despite suffering their heaviest loss at a T20 World Cup, in terms of runs, India are still in the race for the final four. To advance, India will have to not only defeat Zimbabwe in Chennai and West Indies in Kolkata, but do so by big margins to ensure that if the situation boils down to NRR, should other teams finish on the same points as India, the pre-tournament favourites have the advantage to edge them out. 

It’s not all gloom and doom for India. Yes, it’s very tough, but not impossible. 

Unexpectedly, their Super Eights campaign has reached a crossroads. What once looked like a smooth path to the semi-finals has turned into a must-win scenario after a that crushing defeat to South Africa. The loss not only dented confidence but significantly damaged India’s net run rate, leaving little room for further error.

For Suryakumar and his team-mates, the equation is clear: beat Zimbabwe convincingly, then overcome West Indies, and hope results elsewhere fall kindly. The margin of victory in Chennai could prove just as important as the two points on offer.

Selection will be key. With Rinku Singh returning home due to a family emergency, India are expected to reshuffle their batting order. Sanju Samson appears the frontrunner to slot in, potentially even as an opener to counter the early finger-spin that has troubled India’s left-heavy top order. Meanwhile, the likely return of vice-captain Axar Patel in place of Washington Sundar would add balance on a surface traditionally favourable to spin.

Zimbabwe, led by Sikandar Raza, will sense opportunity. Although their fairy-tale run was halted emphatically by West Indies in Mumbai, Chennai’s slower, bowler-friendly conditions could narrow the gap. India’s recent vulnerability against spin offers encouragement to Raza and his attack.

On paper, India remain favourites. In reality, this is a high-pressure contest where intent, clarity in selection, and net run rate awareness could define the night. Anything less than a commanding performance may leave the tournament’s top-ranked side relying on fortune rather than form.

India likely 11: 1 Sanju Samson, 2 Abhishek Sharma, 3 Ishan Kishan (wk), 4 Tilak Varma, 5 Suryakumar Yadav (capt), 6 Hardik Pandya, 7 Shivam Dube, 8 Axar Patel, 9 Jasprit Bumrah, 10 Arshdeep Singh, 11 Varun Chakravarthy

Zimbabwe likely 11: 1 Tadiwanashe Marumani (wk), 2 Brian Bennett, 3 Dion Myers, 4 Ryan Burl, 5 Sikandar Raza (capt), 6 Tony Munyonga, 7 Tashinga Musekiwa, 8 Brad Evans, 9 Graeme Cremer, 10 Blessing Muzarabani, 11 Richard Ngarava