Two unbeaten teams at this T20 World Cup meet in Kolkata on Sunday with very little margin for error in the Super Eights, and more than history or recent form, it is one precise factor that could prove decisive at Eden Gardens.

India, pre-tournament favourites and toppers of Group A, have had a fair deal of problems against finger spin in the World Cup. With six left-handers in the top eight, India have opened themselves up to opponents coming at them with offspin, such as witnessed during the games against Namibia, when Gerhard Erasmus claimed 4/20, Pakistan, in which skipper Salman Agha bowled the first over and dismissed Abhishek Sharma, and most recently in Ahmedabad against Netherlands, where Aryan Dutt took out Abhishek and Ishan Kishan while conceding just 19 runs in four overs. 

In round one of this World Cup, no team has faced as many overs of offspin – 102 deliveries – as India, and only Nepal and Oman have struggled more than India’s batting against this type of finger spin (6.23 runs per over). This is something that India’s assistant coach Ryan ten Doeschate addressed after the match against Netherlands, and Shivam Dube, Player of the Match in Ahmedabad, also spoke of the challenges of facing quality spinners. 

South Africa do not possess a specialist offspinner but could seriously consider playing a second left-arm tweaker in George Linde if the Eden Gardens pitch plays to reputation. A three-prong spin attack of Linde, Keshav Maharaj and Aiden Markram might be the way South Africa lean on Sunday, given the very obvious issues India’s lineup has had against spin so far. 

South Africa made four changes for their last match against UAE, while resting Maharaj, Marco Jansen, David Miller, and Lungi Ngidi. However, given the chances of turn at Eden Gardens and India’s struggles against offspin, it could be that Linde gets another game, which would mean dropping a fast bowler. In this case, it could be Ngidi who sits out. Anrich Nortje, Jason Smith and Kwena Maphaka will be benched. 

India topped Group A with four wins out of four, and yet have come nowhere close to playing their best cricket. In each match, whenever wickets have fallen, at least one batter has put his hand up to be counted. But there are two glaring issues in this order: Abhishek has failed to score a run in three matches and Tilak Varma’s sluggishness against spin. No cricketer apart from Andre Fletcher in 2009 has registered three ducks in a single T20 World Cup, and you wonder how this horrible run of form – in all, Abhishek has five zeroes in 2026 – has impacted the No 1 ranked batter. The team is backing Abhishek, but he needs runs badly to get some semblance of confidence back.

Tilak’s lack of intent against spin is turning into a major irritant, because on days when Abhishek and Kishan fail, the pressure of dot balls adds up and those to follow Suryakumar Yadav are left with plenty to do. Surya himself has bided his time against the spinners, perhaps because he wants to set himself up for the death overs when pace is hurled at him, but the sight of both him and Tilak batting together has been painful at times for Indian fans. Expect Markram to bowl himself at these two if early wickets fall.

India rested Axar Patel in Ahmedabad but need him at Eden Gardens for his left-arm spin and batting. Axar and Varun Chakravarthy will prove a handful for South Africa, and there will be the temptation to bring Kuldeep Yadav back in. Just two pacers in Jasprit Bumrah and Hardik Pandya were enough in Colombo for Pakistan’s feeble batting, but against South Africa, India could bring back Arshdeep Singh. 

Along with getting the right combination for this match, India’s management will also hope that the fielding improves – each match has seen dropped catches – and that Abhishek opens his account at his first World Cup. 

India likely 11: 1 Ishan Kishan (wk), 2 Abhishek Sharma, 3 Tilak Varma, 4 Suryakumar Yadav (capt), 5 Rinku Singh, 6 Hardik Pandya, 7 Shivam Dube, 8 Axar Patel, 9 Jasprit Bumrah, 10 Arshdeep Singh, 11 Varun Chakravarthy

South Africa likely 11: 1 Quinton de Kock (wk), 2 Aiden Markram (capt), 3 Ryan Rickelton, 4 Dewald Brevis, 5 Tristan Stubbs, 6 David Miller, 7 George Linde, 8 Marco Jansen, 9 Corbin Bosch, 10 Kagiso Rabada, 11 Keshav Maharaj